ARC board chairman says declining housing affordability 'not sustainable' for Gwinnett, rest of metro Atlanta

“About one-in-three households in Gwinnett are considered ‘cost-burdened’ because they spend a third or more of their income on housing,” Armstrong said. “These trends are by no means isolated to Gwinnett. It’s occurring across the region and it’s just not sustainable.”

Armstrong said there are a number of issues that face the metro Atlanta region, including transportation, resiliency in areas such as water, homeland security, infrastructure and equal access to opportunity remain challenges the area has to continually address.

But, he added that a lack of affordable housing is an issue that can threaten the region’s sustainability if it not addressed, particularly with metro Atlanta’s population expected to grow by 1.8 million people — the equivalent of metro Nashville’s entire current population — by 2050.

“The Atlanta region stands at a critical crossroads,” Armstrong said. “The decisions and investments that we make in the next few years will go a long way in determining the quality of our future.”

Armstrong said Gwinnett is not alone in facing a problem with housing becoming increasingly unaffordable.

He showed graphics that showed which parts of metro Atlanta had affordable housing and how the number of affordable areas decreased over the last decade.

“By 2021, almost the entire northern side of our region, including nearly all of Gwinnett, is seeing median (home) prices north of $400,000,” Armstrong said. “It really makes you wonder how people like police officers, nurses, teachers alike can afford homes in our region, and that is a huge problem.”

In Gwinnett in particular, Armstrong said building permits for new homes is still half of what it was before the Great Recession of the late 2000s and early 2010s. At the same time, the county’s population is estimated to have grown by nearly 180,000 residents between 2010 and 2022.

Gwinnett had 805,321 residents when the 2010 Census was taken, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and that number had increased to 957,062 when the 2020 Census was taken.

The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey estimated Gwinnett’s population had grown to 964,546 by 2021, and the ARC’s 2022 population estimate put the county at 983,702 residents.

Armstrong said Gwinnett’s population grew by 1.5% over the last two years by the ARC’s estimates (the ARC had Gwinnett’s 2021 population pegged at 970,242 residents, which was a little higher than the Census Bureau’s estimate).

Armstrong said that is faster than the growth in Cobb, Fulton and DeKalb counties, but slower than outlying communities such as Cherokee, Forsyth and Henry counties.

Meanwhile, the ARC board chairman said the housing stock has not kept up with population growth in Gwinnett.

“We’re just not building enough housing to keep with our growth and we all know what happens when supply and demand get out of wack,” Armstrong said.

And, it is not just homes that are becoming less affordable. Armstrong said the rental market is becoming less affordable as well.

“Between 2016 and 2021, Gwinnett lost nearly 15,000 units (that were) renting for less than $1,250 a month,” Armstrong said. “Those aren’t getting replaced. All of this is making it hard for so many of residents to make ends meet.”

The ARC set up the Metro Atlanta Housing Strategy a few years back in an effort to address the housing affordability issue on a regional scale. The strategy is designed to provide local government officials with information about their housing situation, and to show them potential solutions that can be used to address affordability issues.

In addition to the strategy, the ARC also put together a committee, made up of mayors and county commission chairpersons, last year to come up with steps that can be taken to address housing issues. Gwinnett County Commission Chairwoman Nicole Love Hendrickson led the committee.

“It’s certainly true that our region is thriving, but it’s also true that not everyone is enjoying in that success,” Armstrong said. “Home prices in our region have increased four times faster than wages since 2014. Here in Gwinnett, the price of a typical home doubled in that time ...

“That’s simply not affordable for many families and for our essential workers, the teachers, nurses, police officers, firefighters and everyone else that forms the backbone of our community and our economy.”

Hendrickson addressed housing issues in her State of the County Address earlier this month. She said the county is conducting its first needs assessment in more than 30 years to look at community needs, such as housing and homelessness, and how county services are addressing those issues.

The chairwoman also said the county is working on converting an apartment complex in Lawrenceville into a homeless shelter for men and couples who do not have children. The county will also work with the Gwinnett Housing Corporation and Gwinnett/Walton Habitat for Humanity to provide 390 affordable low-income housing units.

“Everyone deserves a safe place to live, no matter their economic situation or what corner of our community they live in,” Hendrickson said at the time. “Housing is a complicated and essential need, and our multi-pronged efforts in this area will continue to evolve with the changing needs of our residents.”